The model missed the final outcome (Planaltina DF win 0–1).
The model had projected Taguatinga EC at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Taguatinga EC Planaltina DF ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taguatinga EC | 40.4% | 56.3% | -15.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.7% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Planaltina DF | 30.1% | 20.0% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Taguatinga EC's win probability at 56.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Planaltina DF win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Taguatinga EC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Taguatinga EC by 15.9 percentage points (56.3% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Taguatinga EC 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Planaltina DF 30.1%
- xG · Taguatinga EC 1.41 — Planaltina DF 1.19
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Taguatinga EC 1.60 · Draw 3.80 · Planaltina DF 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Taguatinga EC 56.3% · Draw 23.7% · Planaltina DF 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Taguatinga EC 1.60 · Draw 3.80 · Planaltina DF 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Taguatinga EC 56.3% · Draw 23.7% · Planaltina DF 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Planaltina DF win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Brasiliense B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | GREVAL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Legião | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Planaltina DF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Canaa EC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GREVAL | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Planaltina DF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Legião | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | Canaa EC | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
