The model missed the final outcome (Canaa EC win 2–1).
The model had projected Luziânia at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Luziânia Canaa EC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canaa EC | 34.7% | 47.1% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Luziânia | 35.6% | 26.4% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Canaa EC's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Canaa EC win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Canaa EC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Luziânia; match finished Canaa EC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Luziânia by 12.4 percentage points (48.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Canaa EC 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Luziânia 35.6%
- xG · Canaa EC 1.29 — Luziânia 1.31
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Canaa EC 1.91 · Draw 3.40 · Luziânia 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Canaa EC 47.1% · Draw 26.4% · Luziânia 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Canaa EC 1.91 · Draw 3.40 · Luziânia 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Canaa EC 47.1% · Draw 26.4% · Luziânia 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Canaa EC win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Brasiliense B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | GREVAL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Legião | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Planaltina DF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Canaa EC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GREVAL | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Taguatinga EC | 3 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Planaltina DF | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Legião | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | Canaa EC | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
