Predictions / Football / Italy. Serie B / Modena vs Verona

Prediction Audit: Modena vs Verona Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Modena Modena
Oct 11, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.32
2 0.97
xG Accuracy: 48%
Verona Verona

AI correctly predicted the Modena win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Modena Modena ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Modena attacking xG significantly stronger (1.32 vs 0.97)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Modena win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 11, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Modena 1.32 — Verona 0.97
  2. Oct 11, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Modena win · 3–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13211636

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Modena win · Modena 3–2 Verona
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Modena vs Verona
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Modena 1.32 — Verona 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.29)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6
14 Virtus Entella 6 1 3 2 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 1 2 3 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 14 7 +7 16
2 Mantova 6 13 6 +7 14
3 Verona 6 12 10 +2 7
4 Modena 6 11 6 +5 13
5 Avellino 6 11 7 +4 10
6 Pisa 6 11 8 +3 10
7 Sudtirol 6 9 3 +6 12
8 Benevento 6 8 5 +3 10
9 Virtus Entella 6 8 7 +1 6
10 Ascoli 6 7 4 +3 11
11 Cesena 6 7 8 -1 7
12 Vicenza Virtus 6 7 13 -6 5
13 Empoli 6 6 10 -4 6
14 Catanzaro 6 6 12 -6 3
15 Arezzo 6 6 13 -7 7
16 Sampdoria 6 6 13 -7 4
17 Cremonese 6 5 7 -2 6
18 Padova 6 5 8 -3 7
19 Juve Stabia 6 5 8 -3 2
20 Carrarese 6 4 6 -2 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 8.0 4.3 +3.7 16
2 Pisa 6 6.4 2.8 +3.6 10
3 Benevento 6 4.3 1.6 +2.7 10
4 Verona 6 6.8 4.5 +2.3 7
5 Modena 6 5.5 3.3 +2.2 13
6 Mantova 6 5.6 3.5 +2.1 14
7 Carrarese 6 4.3 3.5 +0.8 4
8 Arezzo 6 3.6 2.9 +0.7 7
9 Virtus Entella 6 2.5 2.5 0.0 6
10 Cesena 6 3.5 3.7 -0.2 7
11 Avellino 6 4.8 5.1 -0.3 10
12 Juve Stabia 6 3.1 3.7 -0.6 2
13 Sudtirol 6 2.7 3.5 -0.8 12
14 Sampdoria 6 2.9 4.6 -1.7 4
15 Cremonese 6 0.8 2.8 -2.0 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 3.6 5.9 -2.3 5
17 Padova 6 2.7 5.0 -2.3 7
18 Ascoli 6 3.5 6.1 -2.6 11
19 Catanzaro 6 3.8 6.5 -2.7 3
20 Empoli 6 3.5 6.4 -2.9 6
Serie B Italy. Serie B Predictions