Prediction Audit: Modena vs Avellino Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Modena

Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00

0 0.89

1 0.85

xG Accuracy: 75%

Avellino

The model missed the final outcome (Avellino win 0–1).

The model had projected Modena at 38.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Modena Avellino ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Modena	38.9%	55.5%	-16.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	34.4%	26.9%	+7.5 pp	Model Higher
Avellino	26.8%	17.6%	+9.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Modena's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.9%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Avellino win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Modena than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.74, 1 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Modena; match finished Avellino

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Modena by 16.7 percentage points (55.6% vs model 38.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Modena 38.9% · Draw 34.3% · Avellino 26.8%
- xG · Modena 0.89 — Avellino 0.85
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Modena 1.74 · Draw 3.59 · Avellino 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Modena 55.5% · Draw 26.9% · Avellino 17.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Modena 1.74 · Draw 3.59 · Avellino 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Modena 55.5% · Draw 26.9% · Avellino 17.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Avellino win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6355877

Closing Odds 1.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Avellino win · Modena 0–1 Avellino

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Modena vs Avellino
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
xG (showing): Modena 0.89 — Avellino 0.85 (total xG ≈ 1.74)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie B Matches Track Modena Next Match Prediction Track Avellino Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Modena & Avellino!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	13
2	Sudtirol	5	3	2	0	11
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	11
4	Modena	5	3	1	1	10
5	Ascoli	5	3	1	1	10
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	7
7	Benevento	5	2	1	2	7
8	Verona	5	2	1	2	7
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cesena	5	1	4	0	7
11	Pisa	5	2	1	2	7
12	Arezzo	5	2	0	3	6
13	Empoli	5	2	0	3	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	5
15	Cremonese	5	1	2	2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	1	2	2	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juve Stabia	5	1	2	2	3
19	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Palermo	5	10	5	+5	13
2	Mantova	5	10	5	+5	11
3	Verona	5	10	7	+3	7
4	Sudtirol	5	9	3	+6	11
5	Modena	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Pisa	5	8	8	0	7
7	Ascoli	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Avellino	5	7	6	+1	7
9	Cesena	5	7	6	+1	7
10	Virtus Entella	5	7	6	+1	5
11	Vicenza Virtus	5	7	10	-3	5
12	Benevento	5	6	5	+1	7
13	Arezzo	5	6	13	-7	6
14	Padova	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Cremonese	5	5	7	-2	5
16	Sampdoria	5	5	9	-4	4
17	Catanzaro	5	5	9	-4	3
18	Empoli	5	4	6	-2	6
19	Juve Stabia	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Carrarese	5	2	6	-4	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Verona	5	4.8	2.2	+2.6	7
2	Modena	5	3.2	1.3	+1.9	10
3	Benevento	5	2.8	1.1	+1.7	7
4	Pisa	5	3.7	2.2	+1.5	7
5	Palermo	5	3.2	2.2	+1.0	13
6	Cesena	5	3.0	2.1	+0.9	7
7	Mantova	5	2.9	2.6	+0.3	11
8	Sampdoria	5	2.3	2.3	0.0	4
9	Carrarese	5	2.7	2.8	-0.1	1
10	Vicenza Virtus	5	2.9	3.1	-0.2	5
11	Arezzo	5	2.5	2.7	-0.2	6
12	Empoli	5	1.4	1.6	-0.2	6
13	Virtus Entella	5	1.2	1.4	-0.2	5
14	Juve Stabia	5	2.1	2.4	-0.3	3
15	Cremonese	5	0.7	1.6	-0.9	5
16	Catanzaro	5	2.8	3.8	-1.0	3
17	Padova	5	2.0	3.3	-1.3	7
18	Sudtirol	5	1.5	2.8	-1.3	11
19	Avellino	5	2.5	4.4	-1.9	7
20	Ascoli	5	2.9	4.9	-2.0	10