Prediction Audit: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sampdoria

Aug 29, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.16

2 1.02

xG Accuracy: 73%

Juve Stabia

The model missed the final outcome (Juve Stabia win 1–2).

The model had projected Sampdoria at 41.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sampdoria Juve Stabia ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sampdoria	41.2%	51.6%	-10.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	31.8%	28.5%	+3.3 pp	Aligned
Juve Stabia	27.1%	19.9%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Sampdoria's win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.2%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Juve Stabia win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sampdoria than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sampdoria by 10.5 percentage points (51.7% vs model 41.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sampdoria 41.1% · Draw 31.8% · Juve Stabia 27.1%
- xG · Sampdoria 1.16 — Juve Stabia 1.02
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sampdoria 1.87 · Draw 3.39 · Juve Stabia 4.86
- Implied 1X2 · Sampdoria 51.6% · Draw 28.5% · Juve Stabia 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sampdoria 1.87 · Draw 3.39 · Juve Stabia 4.86
- Implied 1X2 · Sampdoria 51.6% · Draw 28.5% · Juve Stabia 19.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Juve Stabia win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (10 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5158234

Closing Odds 1.87

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Juve Stabia win · Sampdoria 1–2 Juve Stabia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
xG (showing): Sampdoria 1.16 — Juve Stabia 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.18)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	13
2	Sudtirol	5	3	2	0	11
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	11
4	Modena	5	3	1	1	10
5	Ascoli	5	3	1	1	10
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	7
7	Benevento	5	2	1	2	7
8	Verona	5	2	1	2	7
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cesena	5	1	4	0	7
11	Pisa	5	2	1	2	7
12	Arezzo	5	2	0	3	6
13	Empoli	5	2	0	3	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	5
15	Cremonese	5	1	2	2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	1	2	2	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juve Stabia	5	1	2	2	3
19	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Palermo	5	10	5	+5	13
2	Mantova	5	10	5	+5	11
3	Verona	5	10	7	+3	7
4	Sudtirol	5	9	3	+6	11
5	Modena	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Pisa	5	8	8	0	7
7	Ascoli	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Avellino	5	7	6	+1	7
9	Cesena	5	7	6	+1	7
10	Virtus Entella	5	7	6	+1	5
11	Vicenza Virtus	5	7	10	-3	5
12	Benevento	5	6	5	+1	7
13	Arezzo	5	6	13	-7	6
14	Padova	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Cremonese	5	5	7	-2	5
16	Sampdoria	5	5	9	-4	4
17	Catanzaro	5	5	9	-4	3
18	Empoli	5	4	6	-2	6
19	Juve Stabia	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Carrarese	5	2	6	-4	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Verona	5	4.8	2.2	+2.6	7
2	Modena	5	3.2	1.3	+1.9	10
3	Benevento	5	2.8	1.1	+1.7	7
4	Pisa	5	3.7	2.2	+1.5	7
5	Palermo	5	3.2	2.2	+1.0	13
6	Cesena	5	3.0	2.1	+0.9	7
7	Mantova	5	2.9	2.6	+0.3	11
8	Sampdoria	5	2.3	2.3	0.0	4
9	Carrarese	5	2.7	2.8	-0.1	1
10	Vicenza Virtus	5	2.9	3.1	-0.2	5
11	Arezzo	5	2.5	2.7	-0.2	6
12	Empoli	5	1.4	1.6	-0.2	6
13	Virtus Entella	5	1.2	1.4	-0.2	5
14	Juve Stabia	5	2.1	2.4	-0.3	3
15	Cremonese	5	0.7	1.6	-0.9	5
16	Catanzaro	5	2.8	3.8	-1.0	3
17	Padova	5	2.0	3.3	-1.3	7
18	Sudtirol	5	1.5	2.8	-1.3	11
19	Avellino	5	2.5	4.4	-1.9	7
20	Ascoli	5	2.9	4.9	-2.0	10