AI correctly predicted the ADR Jicaral win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 ADR Jicaral ADR Jicaral ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Sarchí | 31.9% | 26.3% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| ADR Jicaral | 38.5% | 46.0% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates ADR Jicaral's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ADR Jicaral win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on ADR Jicaral. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ADR Jicaral higher (46.0% vs model 38.5%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ADR Jicaral win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AD Sarchí 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · ADR Jicaral 38.5%
- xG · AD Sarchí 1.23 — ADR Jicaral 1.37
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AD Sarchí 3.37 · Draw 3.20 · ADR Jicaral 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · AD Sarchí 26.3% · Draw 27.7% · ADR Jicaral 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AD Sarchí 3.37 · Draw 3.20 · ADR Jicaral 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · AD Sarchí 26.3% · Draw 27.7% · ADR Jicaral 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result ADR Jicaral win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga de Ascenso — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Cariari Pococi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Cariari Pococi | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
