Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso / Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Cariari Pococi

Prediction Audit: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Cariari Pococi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Sep 22, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
Cariari Pococi Cariari Pococi

AI correctly predicted the Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC -2.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 39.0% 41.5% -2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 28.2% +1.3 pp Aligned
Cariari Pococi 31.5% 30.2% +1.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Cariari Pococi 31.5%
    • xG · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.38 — Cariari Pococi 1.22
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2.33 · Draw 3.10 · Cariari Pococi 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 38.2% · Draw 28.7% · Cariari Pococi 33.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2.17 · Draw 3.19 · Cariari Pococi 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 41.5% · Draw 28.2% · Cariari Pococi 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697563

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1–0 Cariari Pococi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga de Ascenso
  • Fixture: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Cariari Pococi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.38 — Cariari Pococi 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Ascenso Liga de Ascenso — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 7 3 6 24
2 ADR Jicaral 8 5 3 0 18
3 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 5 3 1 18
4 Quepos Cambute 8 5 1 2 16
5 Santa Ana 8 5 0 3 15
6 Cariari Pococi 8 3 4 1 13
7 AD Carmelita 9 3 3 3 12
8 Municipal Grecia 7 3 2 2 11
9 AD Sarchí 8 3 2 3 11
10 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 3 1 5 10
11 CS Uruguay 9 2 2 5 8
12 Santa Cruz FC 8 2 0 6 6
13 Guadalupe FC 9 1 3 5 6
14 AD Cofutpa 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 18 18 0 24
2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 16 11 +5 18
3 AD Carmelita 9 16 11 +5 12
4 Quepos Cambute 8 13 6 +7 16
5 ADR Jicaral 8 12 4 +8 18
6 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 12 10 +2 10
7 Santa Ana 8 11 9 +2 15
8 Santa Cruz FC 8 11 18 -7 6
9 Cariari Pococi 8 10 8 +2 13
10 Guadalupe FC 9 10 17 -7 6
11 Municipal Grecia 7 8 6 +2 11
12 AD Sarchí 8 8 11 -3 11
13 AD Cofutpa 8 7 14 -7 4
14 CS Uruguay 9 7 16 -9 8
Liga de Ascenso Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso Predictions