Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso / Guadalupe FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia

Prediction Audit: Guadalupe FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalupe FC Guadalupe FC
Sep 19, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.33
3 1.27
xG Accuracy: 43%
Futbol Consultants Moravia Futbol Consultants Moravia

The model missed the final outcome (Futbol Consultants Moravia win 0–3).

The model had projected Guadalupe FC at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guadalupe FC Futbol Consultants Moravia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Guadalupe FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guadalupe FC -9.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guadalupe FC 36.6% 46.1% -9.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.2% +2.4 pp Aligned
Futbol Consultants Moravia 33.8% 26.7% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Guadalupe FC's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Futbol Consultants Moravia win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guadalupe FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Guadalupe FC; match finished Futbol Consultants Moravia

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guadalupe FC by 9.5 percentage points (46.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Futbol Consultants Moravia 33.8%
    • xG · Guadalupe FC 1.33 — Futbol Consultants Moravia 1.27
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.93 · Draw 3.25 · Futbol Consultants Moravia 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 45.9% · Draw 27.3% · Futbol Consultants Moravia 26.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.95 · Draw 3.30 · Futbol Consultants Moravia 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 46.1% · Draw 27.2% · Futbol Consultants Moravia 26.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Futbol Consultants Moravia win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 07:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8732581

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Futbol Consultants Moravia win · Guadalupe FC 0–3 Futbol Consultants Moravia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga de Ascenso
  • Fixture: Guadalupe FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Guadalupe FC 1.33 — Futbol Consultants Moravia 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Liga de Ascenso Matches Track Guadalupe FC Next Match Prediction Track Futbol Consultants Moravia Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Guadalupe FC & Futbol Consultants Moravia!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Liga de Ascenso Liga de Ascenso — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 7 3 6 24
2 ADR Jicaral 8 5 3 0 18
3 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 5 3 1 18
4 Quepos Cambute 8 5 1 2 16
5 Santa Ana 8 5 0 3 15
6 Cariari Pococi 8 3 4 1 13
7 AD Carmelita 9 3 3 3 12
8 Municipal Grecia 7 3 2 2 11
9 AD Sarchí 8 3 2 3 11
10 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 3 1 5 10
11 CS Uruguay 9 2 2 5 8
12 Santa Cruz FC 8 2 0 6 6
13 Guadalupe FC 9 1 3 5 6
14 AD Cofutpa 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 18 18 0 24
2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 16 11 +5 18
3 AD Carmelita 9 16 11 +5 12
4 Quepos Cambute 8 13 6 +7 16
5 ADR Jicaral 8 12 4 +8 18
6 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 12 10 +2 10
7 Santa Ana 8 11 9 +2 15
8 Santa Cruz FC 8 11 18 -7 6
9 Cariari Pococi 8 10 8 +2 13
10 Guadalupe FC 9 10 17 -7 6
11 Municipal Grecia 7 8 6 +2 11
12 AD Sarchí 8 8 11 -3 11
13 AD Cofutpa 8 7 14 -7 4
14 CS Uruguay 9 7 16 -9 8
Liga de Ascenso Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso Predictions