Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso / AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Prediction Audit: AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AD Carmelita AD Carmelita
Sep 07, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 78%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

AI correctly predicted the Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC +10.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
AD Carmelita 32.9% 43.4% -10.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.6% -0.0 pp Aligned
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 37.5% 27.0% +10.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.0%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC more conservatively (27.0% vs model 37.5%, 10.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AD Carmelita 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 37.6%
    • xG · AD Carmelita 1.25 — Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.35
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · AD Carmelita 2.42 · Draw 2.91 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2.71
    • Implied 1X2 · AD Carmelita 36.7% · Draw 30.5% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AD Carmelita 2.05 · Draw 3.00 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3.29
    • Implied 1X2 · AD Carmelita 43.4% · Draw 29.6% · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6474608

Closing Odds 3.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · AD Carmelita 1–2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga de Ascenso
  • Fixture: AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): AD Carmelita 1.25 — Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Ascenso Liga de Ascenso — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 7 3 6 24
2 ADR Jicaral 8 5 3 0 18
3 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 5 3 1 18
4 Quepos Cambute 8 5 1 2 16
5 Santa Ana 8 5 0 3 15
6 Cariari Pococi 8 3 4 1 13
7 AD Carmelita 9 3 3 3 12
8 Municipal Grecia 7 3 2 2 11
9 AD Sarchí 8 3 2 3 11
10 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 3 1 5 10
11 CS Uruguay 9 2 2 5 8
12 Santa Cruz FC 8 2 0 6 6
13 Guadalupe FC 9 1 3 5 6
14 AD Cofutpa 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 18 18 0 24
2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 16 11 +5 18
3 AD Carmelita 9 16 11 +5 12
4 Quepos Cambute 8 13 6 +7 16
5 ADR Jicaral 8 12 4 +8 18
6 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 12 10 +2 10
7 Santa Ana 8 11 9 +2 15
8 Santa Cruz FC 8 11 18 -7 6
9 Cariari Pococi 8 10 8 +2 13
10 Guadalupe FC 9 10 17 -7 6
11 Municipal Grecia 7 8 6 +2 11
12 AD Sarchí 8 8 11 -3 11
13 AD Cofutpa 8 7 14 -7 4
14 CS Uruguay 9 7 16 -9 8
Liga de Ascenso Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso Predictions