The model missed the final outcome (Aserri FC win 3–2).
The model had projected Municipal Grecia at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Municipal Grecia Aserri FC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aserri FC | 32.4% | 36.7% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Municipal Grecia | 38.0% | 34.4% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Aserri FC win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Municipal Grecia; match finished Aserri FC
Market lesson
The full-time result was Aserri FC win 3–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aserri FC 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Municipal Grecia 38.0%
- xG · Aserri FC 1.24 — Municipal Grecia 1.36
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aserri FC 2.42 · Draw 3.08 · Municipal Grecia 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Aserri FC 36.7% · Draw 28.9% · Municipal Grecia 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aserri FC 2.42 · Draw 3.08 · Municipal Grecia 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Aserri FC 36.7% · Draw 28.9% · Municipal Grecia 34.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aserri FC win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga de Ascenso — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Cariari Pococi | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
