Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso / Guadalupe FC vs Aserri FC

Prediction Audit: Guadalupe FC vs Aserri FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalupe FC Guadalupe FC
Aug 15, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.47
2 1.13
xG Accuracy: 52%
Aserri FC Aserri FC

The model missed the final outcome (Aserri FC win 0–2).

The model had projected Guadalupe FC at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guadalupe FC Aserri FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Guadalupe FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guadalupe FC -21.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guadalupe FC 43.4% 64.7% -21.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 20.5% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Aserri FC 27.5% 14.8% +12.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Guadalupe FC's win probability at 64.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Aserri FC win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Guadalupe FC; match finished Aserri FC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guadalupe FC by 21.4 percentage points (64.8% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Aserri FC 27.5%
    • xG · Guadalupe FC 1.47 — Aserri FC 1.13
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · Aserri FC 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 64.7% · Draw 20.5% · Aserri FC 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalupe FC 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · Aserri FC 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalupe FC 64.7% · Draw 20.5% · Aserri FC 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aserri FC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3615492

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aserri FC win · Guadalupe FC 0–2 Aserri FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga de Ascenso
  • Fixture: Guadalupe FC vs Aserri FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Guadalupe FC 1.47 — Aserri FC 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Ascenso Liga de Ascenso — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 7 3 6 24
2 ADR Jicaral 8 5 3 0 18
3 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 5 3 1 18
4 Quepos Cambute 8 5 1 2 16
5 Santa Ana 8 5 0 3 15
6 AD Carmelita 9 3 3 3 12
7 Cariari Pococi 7 3 3 1 12
8 Municipal Grecia 7 3 2 2 11
9 AD Sarchí 8 3 2 3 11
10 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 3 1 5 10
11 CS Uruguay 8 2 1 5 7
12 Santa Cruz FC 8 2 0 6 6
13 Guadalupe FC 9 1 3 5 6
14 AD Cofutpa 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aserri FC 16 18 18 0 24
2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 9 16 11 +5 18
3 AD Carmelita 9 16 11 +5 12
4 Quepos Cambute 8 13 6 +7 16
5 ADR Jicaral 8 12 4 +8 18
6 Futbol Consultants Moravia 9 12 10 +2 10
7 Santa Ana 8 11 9 +2 15
8 Santa Cruz FC 8 11 18 -7 6
9 Guadalupe FC 9 10 17 -7 6
10 Cariari Pococi 7 9 7 +2 12
11 Municipal Grecia 7 8 6 +2 11
12 AD Sarchí 8 8 11 -3 11
13 AD Cofutpa 8 7 14 -7 4
14 CS Uruguay 8 6 15 -9 7
Liga de Ascenso Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso Predictions