The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected ADR Jicaral at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 ADR Jicaral Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADR Jicaral | 40.4% | 63.1% | -22.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.3% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
| AD Sarchí | 30.1% | 15.6% | +14.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates ADR Jicaral's win probability at 63.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned ADR Jicaral; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on ADR Jicaral by 22.7 percentage points (63.1% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ADR Jicaral 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · AD Sarchí 30.1%
- xG · ADR Jicaral 1.41 — AD Sarchí 1.19
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ADR Jicaral 1.42 · Draw 4.20 · AD Sarchí 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · ADR Jicaral 63.1% · Draw 21.3% · AD Sarchí 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · ADR Jicaral 1.42 · Draw 4.20 · AD Sarchí 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · ADR Jicaral 63.1% · Draw 21.3% · AD Sarchí 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga de Ascenso — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Cariari Pococi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Cariari Pococi | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
