AI correctly predicted the Kuching FA win.
The match finished 0–6, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Kuching FA Kuching FA ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuala Lumpur FA | 30.1% | 10.8% | +19.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 16.6% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Kuching FA | 40.4% | 72.7% | -32.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kuching FA's win probability at 72.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 32.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kuching FA win 0–6).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kuching FA higher (72.7% vs model 40.4%, 32.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kuching FA win 0–6).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kuala Lumpur FA 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Kuching FA 40.5%
- xG · Kuala Lumpur FA 1.19 — Kuching FA 1.41
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kuala Lumpur FA 8.45 · Draw 5.49 · Kuching FA 1.25
- Implied 1X2 · Kuala Lumpur FA 10.8% · Draw 16.6% · Kuching FA 72.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kuala Lumpur FA 8.45 · Draw 5.49 · Kuching FA 1.25
- Implied 1X2 · Kuala Lumpur FA 10.8% · Draw 16.6% · Kuching FA 72.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kuching FA win · 0–6
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Kuching FA | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Selangor | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Sabah FA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | DPMM FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Terengganu | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Penang | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Melaka | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Imigresen | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 5 | 25 | 0 | +25 | 15 |
| 2 | Kuching FA | 5 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Selangor | 4 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 4 | Sabah FA | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negeri Sembilan | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Melaka | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | Terengganu | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Imigresen | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 |
| 10 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 5 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 0 |
| 11 | DPMM FC | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Penang | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
