The model missed the final outcome (Gottne win 4–0).
The model had projected IFK Östersund at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 IFK Östersund Gottne ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gottne | 30.6% | 36.0% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.6% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| IFK Östersund | 39.9% | 38.4% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Gottne's win probability at 36.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Gottne win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Gottne. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IFK Östersund by 5.4 percentage points (45.3% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gottne 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · IFK Östersund 40.0%
- xG · Gottne 1.20 — IFK Östersund 1.40
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gottne 2.47 · Draw 3.46 · IFK Östersund 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Gottne 36.0% · Draw 25.7% · IFK Östersund 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gottne 2.50 · Draw 3.51 · IFK Östersund 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Gottne 36.0% · Draw 25.6% · IFK Östersund 38.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gottne win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 2 - Norrland — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Team Thoren | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Täfteå | 12 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 32 | 14 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Gottne | 12 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 23 |
| 4 | Skellefteå | 12 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 27 |
| 5 | Lucksta | 12 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 23 |
| 7 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Team Thoren | 12 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 11 |
| 11 | Fransta | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 | Boden | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 13 | Storfors | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 8 |
| 14 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 10 | 38 | -28 | 4 |
