Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Dodoma Jiji vs Namungo

Prediction Audit: Dodoma Jiji vs Namungo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dodoma Jiji Dodoma Jiji
Sep 11, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Namungo Namungo

AI correctly predicted the Dodoma Jiji win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dodoma Jiji Dodoma Jiji ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Namungo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Namungo +11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dodoma Jiji 35.6% 44.6% -9.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 32.4% -2.8 pp Aligned
Namungo 34.7% 22.9% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Namungo's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dodoma Jiji win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Namungo.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dodoma Jiji more conservatively (23.9% vs model 35.6%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dodoma Jiji win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Namungo 34.7%
    • xG · Dodoma Jiji 1.31 — Namungo 1.29
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 1.99 · Draw 2.74 · Namungo 3.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 44.6% · Draw 32.4% · Namungo 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 1.99 · Draw 2.74 · Namungo 3.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 44.6% · Draw 32.4% · Namungo 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dodoma Jiji win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7031080

Closing Odds 3.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dodoma Jiji win · Dodoma Jiji 1–0 Namungo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Dodoma Jiji vs Namungo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Dodoma Jiji 1.31 — Namungo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.0% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 14
4 Singida Fountain Gate 6 3 1 2 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 7
12 Kitayosce 6 1 3 2 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6
14 Singida Big Stars 6 1 1 4 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 2
16 Pamba Jiji 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 6 16 2 +14 18
2 Singida Fountain Gate 6 13 9 +4 10
3 Simba 6 11 2 +9 18
4 Azam 7 11 7 +4 14
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Geita Gold 6 9 8 +1 7
7 JKT Tanzania 6 7 10 -3 7
8 Mbeya City 6 6 4 +2 10
9 Mashujaa 6 6 6 0 9
10 Kitayosce 6 6 6 0 6
11 Coastal Union 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Namungo 7 6 11 -5 6
13 Kagera Sugar 6 5 14 -9 2
14 Dodoma Jiji 6 4 4 0 10
15 Pamba Jiji 6 4 13 -9 1
16 Singida Big Stars 6 2 9 -7 4