Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Mashujaa vs Singida Fountain Gate

Prediction Audit: Mashujaa vs Singida Fountain Gate Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mashujaa Mashujaa
Sep 09, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 74%
Singida Fountain Gate Singida Fountain Gate

The model missed the final outcome (Mashujaa win 2–1).

The model had projected Singida Fountain Gate at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Singida Fountain Gate Mashujaa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Singida Fountain Gate higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Singida Fountain Gate -11.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mashujaa 32.4% 22.1% +10.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 28.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Singida Fountain Gate 38.0% 49.6% -11.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Singida Fountain Gate's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mashujaa win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Singida Fountain Gate than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Singida Fountain Gate; match finished Mashujaa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Singida Fountain Gate by 11.6 percentage points (49.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mashujaa 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Singida Fountain Gate 38.0%
    • xG · Mashujaa 1.24 — Singida Fountain Gate 1.36
  2. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mashujaa 3.45 · Draw 2.90 · Singida Fountain Gate 2.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Mashujaa 25.8% · Draw 30.6% · Singida Fountain Gate 43.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mashujaa 4.07 · Draw 3.18 · Singida Fountain Gate 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Mashujaa 22.1% · Draw 28.3% · Singida Fountain Gate 49.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mashujaa win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6578449

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mashujaa win · Mashujaa 2–1 Singida Fountain Gate
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Mashujaa vs Singida Fountain Gate
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Mashujaa 1.24 — Singida Fountain Gate 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 14
4 Singida Fountain Gate 6 3 1 2 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 7
12 Kitayosce 6 1 3 2 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6
14 Singida Big Stars 6 1 1 4 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 2
16 Pamba Jiji 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 6 16 2 +14 18
2 Singida Fountain Gate 6 13 9 +4 10
3 Simba 6 11 2 +9 18
4 Azam 7 11 7 +4 14
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Geita Gold 6 9 8 +1 7
7 JKT Tanzania 6 7 10 -3 7
8 Mbeya City 6 6 4 +2 10
9 Mashujaa 6 6 6 0 9
10 Kitayosce 6 6 6 0 6
11 Coastal Union 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Namungo 7 6 11 -5 6
13 Kagera Sugar 6 5 14 -9 2
14 Dodoma Jiji 6 4 4 0 10
15 Pamba Jiji 6 4 13 -9 1
16 Singida Big Stars 6 2 9 -7 4