AI correctly predicted the Simba win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Simba Simba ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 48.3% | 82.0% | -33.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 12.4% | +16.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Geita Gold | 23.3% | 5.6% | +17.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Simba's win probability at 82.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 33.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Simba win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Simba attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Simba higher (82.0% vs model 48.3%, 33.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Simba win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Simba 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Geita Gold 23.3%
- xG · Simba 1.57 — Geita Gold 1.03
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Simba 1.09 · Draw 7.20 · Geita Gold 16.02
- Implied 1X2 · Simba 82.0% · Draw 12.4% · Geita Gold 5.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Simba 1.09 · Draw 7.20 · Geita Gold 16.02
- Implied 1X2 · Simba 82.0% · Draw 12.4% · Geita Gold 5.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Simba win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Geita Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kitayosce | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Namungo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Simba | 6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Azam | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Geita Gold | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Kitayosce | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Namungo | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
