Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Singida Big Stars vs Mbeya City

Prediction Audit: Singida Big Stars vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Singida Big Stars Singida Big Stars
Aug 28, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Mbeya City Mbeya City

The model missed the final outcome (Mbeya City win 0–2).

The model had projected Singida Big Stars at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Singida Big Stars Mbeya City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Singida Big Stars considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Singida Big Stars +8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Singida Big Stars 35.6% 27.3% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.0% -1.4 pp Aligned
Mbeya City 34.7% 41.7% -7.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Singida Big Stars's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.3%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mbeya City win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Singida Big Stars.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Singida Big Stars; match finished Mbeya City

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Singida Big Stars by 8.4 percentage points (27.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Mbeya City 34.7%
    • xG · Singida Big Stars 1.31 — Mbeya City 1.29
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Singida Big Stars 2.25 · Draw 3.00 · Mbeya City 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 40.0% · Draw 30.0% · Mbeya City 30.0%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Singida Big Stars 3.30 · Draw 2.90 · Mbeya City 2.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 27.3% · Draw 31.0% · Mbeya City 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mbeya City win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4918302

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mbeya City win · Singida Big Stars 0–2 Mbeya City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Singida Big Stars vs Mbeya City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Singida Big Stars 1.31 — Mbeya City 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 14
4 Singida Fountain Gate 6 3 1 2 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 7
12 Kitayosce 6 1 3 2 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6
14 Singida Big Stars 6 1 1 4 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 2
16 Pamba Jiji 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 6 16 2 +14 18
2 Singida Fountain Gate 6 13 9 +4 10
3 Simba 6 11 2 +9 18
4 Azam 7 11 7 +4 14
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Geita Gold 6 9 8 +1 7
7 JKT Tanzania 6 7 10 -3 7
8 Mbeya City 6 6 4 +2 10
9 Mashujaa 6 6 6 0 9
10 Kitayosce 6 6 6 0 6
11 Coastal Union 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Namungo 7 6 11 -5 6
13 Kagera Sugar 6 5 14 -9 2
14 Dodoma Jiji 6 4 4 0 10
15 Pamba Jiji 6 4 13 -9 1
16 Singida Big Stars 6 2 9 -7 4