The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Pamba Jiji at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Pamba Jiji Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamba Jiji | 35.2% | 45.1% | -10.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.8% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Dodoma Jiji | 35.2% | 23.1% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Dodoma Jiji's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.1%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dodoma Jiji.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Pamba Jiji; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Pamba Jiji by 12.1 percentage points (23.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Dodoma Jiji 35.2%
- xG · Pamba Jiji 1.30 — Dodoma Jiji 1.30
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.97 · Draw 2.80 · Dodoma Jiji 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 45.1% · Draw 31.8% · Dodoma Jiji 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.97 · Draw 2.80 · Dodoma Jiji 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 45.1% · Draw 31.8% · Dodoma Jiji 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Geita Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kitayosce | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Namungo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Simba | 6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Azam | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Geita Gold | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Kitayosce | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Namungo | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
