AI correctly predicted the Linares Unido win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Linares Unido Linares Unido ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linares Unido | 39.5% | 47.8% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.1% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Colchagua | 31.0% | 26.1% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Linares Unido's win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Linares Unido win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Linares Unido. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Linares Unido higher (47.9% vs model 39.5%, 8.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Linares Unido win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Linares Unido 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Colchagua 31.0%
- xG · Linares Unido 1.39 — Colchagua 1.21
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Linares Unido 1.89 · Draw 3.46 · Colchagua 3.47
- Implied 1X2 · Linares Unido 47.8% · Draw 26.1% · Colchagua 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Linares Unido 1.89 · Draw 3.46 · Colchagua 3.47
- Implied 1X2 · Linares Unido 47.8% · Draw 26.1% · Colchagua 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Linares Unido win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
