The model missed the final outcome (Platense win 2–1).
The model had projected Municipal Limeño at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Municipal Limeño Platense ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platense | 34.7% | 30.5% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Municipal Limeño | 35.6% | 40.5% | -4.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Platense win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Municipal Limeño; match finished Platense
Market lesson
The full-time result was Platense win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Platense 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Municipal Limeño 35.6%
- xG · Platense 1.29 — Municipal Limeño 1.31
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Platense 3.00 · Draw 3.16 · Municipal Limeño 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Platense 30.5% · Draw 29.0% · Municipal Limeño 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Platense 3.00 · Draw 3.16 · Municipal Limeño 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Platense 30.5% · Draw 29.0% · Municipal Limeño 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Platense win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidro Metapán | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 |
| 2 | Firpo | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| 3 | FAS | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Inter | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Águila | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Alianza | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Municipal Limeño | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Platense | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 13 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 25 |
| 2 | FAS | 12 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | Águila | 14 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 | Isidro Metapán | 13 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 26 |
| 5 | Inter | 14 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
| 6 | Alianza | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Municipal Limeño | 14 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Platense | 14 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | Atletico Balboa | 14 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 | Cacahuatique | 14 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Inca Aruba | 14 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 16 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 14 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 9 |
