AI correctly predicted the Municipal Limeño win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Municipal Limeño Municipal Limeño ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño | 40.4% | 33.6% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 31.3% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Isidro Metapán | 30.1% | 35.1% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Municipal Limeño's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.6%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Municipal Limeño win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Municipal Limeño.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Municipal Limeño more conservatively (33.6% vs model 40.4%, 6.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Municipal Limeño win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Isidro Metapán 30.1%
- xG · Municipal Limeño 1.41 — Isidro Metapán 1.19
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Municipal Limeño 2.73 · Draw 2.93 · Isidro Metapán 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 33.6% · Draw 31.3% · Isidro Metapán 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Municipal Limeño 2.73 · Draw 2.93 · Isidro Metapán 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 33.6% · Draw 31.3% · Isidro Metapán 35.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Municipal Limeño win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | Firpo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | Inter | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Platense | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 2 | Firpo | 11 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Inter | 13 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 | Águila | 13 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 13 |
| 9 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Platense | 12 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
