AI correctly predicted the Atletico Balboa win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atletico Balboa Atletico Balboa ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Balboa | 39.0% | 42.4% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.9% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 31.5% | 26.6% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atletico Balboa win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Atletico Balboa win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Fuerte San Francisco 31.5%
- xG · Atletico Balboa 1.38 — Fuerte San Francisco 1.22
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Balboa 2.16 · Draw 2.96 · Fuerte San Francisco 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 42.4% · Draw 30.9% · Fuerte San Francisco 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Balboa 2.16 · Draw 2.96 · Fuerte San Francisco 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 42.4% · Draw 30.9% · Fuerte San Francisco 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico Balboa win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | Firpo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | Inter | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Platense | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 2 | Firpo | 11 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Inter | 13 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 | Águila | 13 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 13 |
| 9 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Platense | 12 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
