The model missed the final outcome (Atletico Balboa win 2–4).
The model had projected Águila at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Águila Atletico Balboa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águila | 38.5% | 59.1% | -20.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.7% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Atletico Balboa | 31.9% | 16.2% | +15.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Águila's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 20.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Atletico Balboa win 2–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Águila; match finished Atletico Balboa
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Águila by 20.6 percentage points (59.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Águila 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Atletico Balboa 31.9%
- xG · Águila 1.37 — Atletico Balboa 1.23
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Águila 1.55 · Draw 3.71 · Atletico Balboa 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · Águila 59.1% · Draw 24.7% · Atletico Balboa 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Águila 1.55 · Draw 3.71 · Atletico Balboa 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · Águila 59.1% · Draw 24.7% · Atletico Balboa 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico Balboa win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Firpo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Firpo | 10 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Inter | 11 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 | Águila | 11 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 11 |
