The model missed the final outcome (Inter win 0–1).
The model had projected Municipal Limeño at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Municipal Limeño Inter ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño | 37.5% | 26.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Inter | 32.9% | 42.0% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Municipal Limeño's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.9%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Inter win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Municipal Limeño.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Municipal Limeño; match finished Inter
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Municipal Limeño by 10.7 percentage points (26.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Inter 32.9%
- xG · Municipal Limeño 1.35 — Inter 1.25
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Municipal Limeño 3.33 · Draw 2.87 · Inter 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 26.9% · Draw 31.2% · Inter 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Municipal Limeño 3.33 · Draw 2.87 · Inter 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Municipal Limeño 26.9% · Draw 31.2% · Inter 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | Firpo | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | Inter | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Platense | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 11 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 2 | Firpo | 11 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | Inter | 13 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 | Águila | 13 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 17 |
| 5 | Isidro Metapán | 12 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 12 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 | Alianza | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 13 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 13 |
| 9 | Cacahuatique | 13 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Platense | 12 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Inca Aruba | 12 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 12 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
