Predictions / Football / El-Salvador. Primera Division / FAS vs Atletico Balboa

Prediction Audit: FAS vs Atletico Balboa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FAS FAS
Aug 09, 2026 - 23:30
1 1.48
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Atletico Balboa

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected FAS at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FAS Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FAS; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 04, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · FAS 1.48 — Atletico Balboa 1.12
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2970086

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FAS 1–1 Atletico Balboa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: FAS vs Atletico Balboa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): FAS 1.48 — Atletico Balboa 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FAS 10 6 2 2 20
2 Inter 11 5 5 1 20
3 Isidro Metapán 11 6 2 3 20
4 Firpo 10 5 3 2 18
5 Municipal Limeño 11 5 2 4 17
6 Águila 11 3 5 3 14
7 Alianza 9 3 4 2 13
8 Atletico Balboa 11 3 3 5 12
9 Platense 11 3 3 5 12
10 Inca Aruba 11 3 2 6 11
11 Cacahuatique 11 1 5 5 8
12 Fuerte San Francisco 11 1 4 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAS 10 18 9 +9 20
2 Firpo 10 16 7 +9 18
3 Inter 11 16 8 +8 20
4 Municipal Limeño 11 16 12 +4 17
5 Águila 11 16 14 +2 14
6 Isidro Metapán 11 15 10 +5 20
7 Alianza 9 14 13 +1 13
8 Atletico Balboa 11 12 16 -4 12
9 Platense 11 12 16 -4 12
10 Cacahuatique 11 11 18 -7 8
11 Fuerte San Francisco 11 8 19 -11 7
12 Inca Aruba 11 8 20 -12 11
Primera Division El-Salvador. Primera Division Predictions