Predictions / Football / El-Salvador. Primera Division / Atletico Balboa vs Isidro Metapán

Prediction Audit: Atletico Balboa vs Isidro Metapán Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Atletico Balboa
Aug 02, 2026 - 21:00
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Isidro Metapán Isidro Metapán

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Atletico Balboa at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atletico Balboa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Isidro Metapán higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Isidro Metapán -9.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atletico Balboa 39.0% 31.4% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 27.8% +1.8 pp Aligned
Isidro Metapán 31.5% 40.8% -9.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Isidro Metapán's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 9.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Isidro Metapán. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Atletico Balboa; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Balboa by 9.4 percentage points (48.4% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Isidro Metapán 31.5%
    • xG · Atletico Balboa 1.38 — Isidro Metapán 1.22
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Balboa 2.90 · Draw 3.28 · Isidro Metapán 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 31.4% · Draw 27.8% · Isidro Metapán 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Balboa 2.90 · Draw 3.28 · Isidro Metapán 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Balboa 31.4% · Draw 27.8% · Isidro Metapán 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1956668

Closing Odds 2.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atletico Balboa 0–0 Isidro Metapán
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: Atletico Balboa vs Isidro Metapán
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Atletico Balboa 1.38 — Isidro Metapán 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FAS 10 6 2 2 20
2 Inter 11 5 5 1 20
3 Isidro Metapán 11 6 2 3 20
4 Firpo 10 5 3 2 18
5 Municipal Limeño 11 5 2 4 17
6 Águila 11 3 5 3 14
7 Alianza 9 3 4 2 13
8 Atletico Balboa 11 3 3 5 12
9 Platense 11 3 3 5 12
10 Inca Aruba 11 3 2 6 11
11 Cacahuatique 11 1 5 5 8
12 Fuerte San Francisco 11 1 4 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAS 10 18 9 +9 20
2 Firpo 10 16 7 +9 18
3 Inter 11 16 8 +8 20
4 Municipal Limeño 11 16 12 +4 17
5 Águila 11 16 14 +2 14
6 Isidro Metapán 11 15 10 +5 20
7 Alianza 9 14 13 +1 13
8 Atletico Balboa 11 12 16 -4 12
9 Platense 11 12 16 -4 12
10 Cacahuatique 11 11 18 -7 8
11 Fuerte San Francisco 11 8 19 -11 7
12 Inca Aruba 11 8 20 -12 11
Primera Division El-Salvador. Primera Division Predictions