Predictions / Football / El-Salvador. Primera Division / Isidro Metapán vs FAS

Prediction Audit: Isidro Metapán vs FAS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Isidro Metapán Isidro Metapán
Jul 31, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.10
0 1.50
xG Accuracy: 52%
FAS FAS

The model missed the final outcome (Isidro Metapán win 2–0).

The model had projected FAS at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FAS Isidro Metapán ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FAS considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FAS +12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Isidro Metapán 26.2% 37.8% -11.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 30.1% -1.1 pp Aligned
FAS 44.8% 32.2% +12.7 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates FAS's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Isidro Metapán win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FAS.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned FAS; match finished Isidro Metapán

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FAS by 12.7 percentage points (32.1% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Isidro Metapán 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · FAS 44.8%
    • xG · Isidro Metapán 1.10 — FAS 1.50
  2. Jul 30, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Isidro Metapán 2.41 · Draw 3.03 · FAS 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Isidro Metapán 37.8% · Draw 30.1% · FAS 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 30, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Isidro Metapán 2.41 · Draw 3.03 · FAS 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Isidro Metapán 37.8% · Draw 30.1% · FAS 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Isidro Metapán win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1667654

Closing Odds 2.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Isidro Metapán win · Isidro Metapán 2–0 FAS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: Isidro Metapán vs FAS
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.8%
  • xG (showing): Isidro Metapán 1.1 — FAS 1.5 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Inter 10 5 4 1 19
2 Isidro Metapán 10 6 1 3 19
3 FAS 9 5 2 2 17
4 Municipal Limeño 10 5 2 3 17
5 Firpo 8 4 2 2 14
6 Atletico Balboa 10 3 3 4 12
7 Platense 10 3 3 4 12
8 Águila 10 2 5 3 11
9 Inca Aruba 11 3 2 6 11
10 Alianza 7 2 3 2 9
11 Cacahuatique 9 1 4 4 7
12 Fuerte San Francisco 10 1 3 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter 10 16 8 +8 19
2 FAS 9 16 9 +7 17
3 Isidro Metapán 10 15 10 +5 19
4 Águila 10 15 14 +1 11
5 Municipal Limeño 10 14 9 +5 17
6 Firpo 8 13 6 +7 14
7 Platense 10 12 15 -3 12
8 Atletico Balboa 10 11 13 -2 12
9 Cacahuatique 9 11 16 -5 7
10 Alianza 7 9 9 0 9
11 Inca Aruba 11 8 20 -12 11
12 Fuerte San Francisco 10 6 17 -11 6
Primera Division El-Salvador. Primera Division Predictions