AI correctly predicted the Firpo win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Firpo Firpo ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firpo | 49.7% | 64.0% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.5% | 23.0% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 22.8% | 13.1% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Firpo's win probability at 64.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.7%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Firpo win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Firpo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Firpo higher (64.0% vs model 49.7%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Firpo win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Firpo 49.7% · Draw 27.5% · Fuerte San Francisco 22.8%
- xG · Firpo 1.47 — Fuerte San Francisco 1.13
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Firpo 1.43 · Draw 3.98 · Fuerte San Francisco 7.01
- Implied 1X2 · Firpo 64.0% · Draw 23.0% · Fuerte San Francisco 13.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Firpo 1.43 · Draw 3.98 · Fuerte San Francisco 7.01
- Implied 1X2 · Firpo 64.0% · Draw 23.0% · Fuerte San Francisco 13.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Firpo win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Firpo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Firpo | 10 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Inter | 11 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 | Águila | 11 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 11 |
