AI correctly predicted the Sabah FA win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sabah FA Sabah FA ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA | 49.8% | 76.1% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.1% | 15.6% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Kapaz | 22.1% | 8.4% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Sabah FA's win probability at 76.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.8%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sabah FA win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Sabah FA attacking xG significantly stronger (1.60 vs 1.00)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sabah FA higher (76.1% vs model 49.8%, 26.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sabah FA win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sabah FA 49.8% · Draw 28.1% · Kapaz 22.1%
- xG · Sabah FA 1.60 — Kapaz 1.00
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sabah FA 1.20 · Draw 5.87 · Kapaz 10.88
- Implied 1X2 · Sabah FA 76.1% · Draw 15.6% · Kapaz 8.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sabah FA 1.20 · Draw 5.87 · Kapaz 10.88
- Implied 1X2 · Sabah FA 76.1% · Draw 15.6% · Kapaz 8.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sabah FA win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premyer Liqa — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Zira | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Keshla FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Kapaz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Qabala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Mil-Muğan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Safa Baku | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Sumqayıt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 | Araz | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Keshla FC | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Zira | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Turan | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mil-Muğan | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Araz | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 9 | Kapaz | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Sumqayıt | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 | Qabala | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Safa Baku | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
