The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Karpaty at 40.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Karpaty Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livyi Bereh | 30.5% | 31.0% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.2% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Karpaty | 40.2% | 40.8% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Karpaty; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Livyi Bereh 30.5% · Draw 29.2% · Karpaty 40.3%
- xG · Livyi Bereh 1.21 — Karpaty 1.42
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Livyi Bereh 2.97 · Draw 3.27 · Karpaty 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Livyi Bereh 31.0% · Draw 28.2% · Karpaty 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Livyi Bereh 2.97 · Draw 3.27 · Karpaty 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · Livyi Bereh 31.0% · Draw 28.2% · Karpaty 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Chornomorets | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Polessya | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 6 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 5 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | LNZ Cherkasy | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Bukovyna | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Kudrivka | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 2 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4 |
