Predictions / Football / France. National 2 - Group B / Saint-Malo vs Stade Briochin

Prediction Audit: Saint-Malo vs Stade Briochin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Saint-Malo Saint-Malo
Sep 04, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 49%
Stade Briochin Stade Briochin

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Saint-Malo at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Saint-Malo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Saint-Malo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Saint-Malo 1.31 — Stade Briochin 1.29
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5919754

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Saint-Malo 0–0 Stade Briochin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 2 - Group B
  • Fixture: Saint-Malo vs Stade Briochin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Saint-Malo 1.31 — Stade Briochin 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group B National 2 - Group B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Angoulême 6 4 2 0 14
2 Bayonne 6 4 1 1 13
3 Granville 6 3 2 1 11
4 Avranches 6 3 2 1 11
5 Dinan Léhon 6 3 2 1 11
6 Saint-Malo 6 3 2 1 11
7 Tarbes 6 2 3 1 9
8 Lorient II 6 3 0 3 9
9 Le Poiré sur Vie 6 3 0 3 9
10 Stade Briochin 6 2 3 1 9
11 Les Herbiers 6 2 1 3 7
12 Saint-Colomban Locminé 6 1 2 3 5
13 Saumur 6 1 1 4 4
14 Pontivy GSI 6 0 3 3 3
15 Châteaubriant 6 0 3 3 3
16 Chauray 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Angoulême 6 10 4 +6 14
2 Lorient II 6 10 6 +4 9
3 Bayonne 6 9 5 +4 13
4 Granville 6 9 8 +1 11
5 Avranches 6 8 3 +5 11
6 Saint-Malo 6 8 3 +5 11
7 Stade Briochin 6 8 6 +2 9
8 Le Poiré sur Vie 6 8 8 0 9
9 Dinan Léhon 6 5 3 +2 11
10 Les Herbiers 6 5 7 -2 7
11 Pontivy GSI 6 5 10 -5 3
12 Saumur 6 4 10 -6 4
13 Tarbes 6 3 2 +1 9
14 Saint-Colomban Locminé 6 3 5 -2 5
15 Châteaubriant 6 3 10 -7 3
16 Chauray 6 3 11 -8 1
National 2 - Group B France. National 2 - Group B Predictions