The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Platense at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Platense Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuerte San Francisco | 33.3% | 42.1% | -8.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.8% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Platense | 37.1% | 29.1% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Fuerte San Francisco's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Fuerte San Francisco. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Platense; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Platense by 8.8 percentage points (45.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fuerte San Francisco 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Platense 37.0%
- xG · Fuerte San Francisco 1.26 — Platense 1.34
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fuerte San Francisco 2.11 · Draw 3.09 · Platense 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Fuerte San Francisco 42.1% · Draw 28.8% · Platense 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fuerte San Francisco 2.11 · Draw 3.09 · Platense 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Fuerte San Francisco 42.1% · Draw 28.8% · Platense 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Firpo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Águila | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 10 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Firpo | 10 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Inter | 11 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Municipal Limeño | 11 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 | Águila | 11 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Isidro Metapán | 11 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 | Alianza | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Atletico Balboa | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Platense | 11 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Cacahuatique | 11 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 11 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 11 |
