The model missed the final outcome (Al-Jazira win 1–3).
The model had projected Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Al-Jazira ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 43.4% | 47.6% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.3% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Al-Jazira | 27.5% | 26.1% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al-Jazira win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Shabab Al Ahli Dubai; match finished Al-Jazira
Market lesson
The full-time result was Al-Jazira win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Al-Jazira 27.5%
- xG · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.47 — Al-Jazira 1.13
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.00 · Draw 3.62 · Al-Jazira 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47.6% · Draw 26.3% · Al-Jazira 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.00 · Draw 3.62 · Al-Jazira 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47.6% · Draw 26.3% · Al-Jazira 26.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al-Jazira win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Dubai United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Wasl FC | 5 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Dubai United | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Al-Jazira | 5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | Ajman | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 7 | Sharjah FC | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Wahda FC | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Al Nasr | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Baniyas SC | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Hatta SC | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Khorfakkan | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Al-Dhafra | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
