AI correctly predicted the Derry City win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Derry City Derry City ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCD | 30.6% | 20.3% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.9% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Derry City | 39.9% | 57.9% | -17.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Derry City's win probability at 57.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Derry City win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Derry City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Derry City higher (57.8% vs model 39.9%, 17.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Derry City win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · UCD 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Derry City 40.0%
- xG · UCD 1.20 — Derry City 1.40
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · UCD 4.51 · Draw 4.18 · Derry City 1.58
- Implied 1X2 · UCD 20.3% · Draw 21.9% · Derry City 57.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · UCD 4.51 · Draw 4.18 · Derry City 1.58
- Implied 1X2 · UCD 20.3% · Draw 21.9% · Derry City 57.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Derry City win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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