The model missed the final outcome (Talent Warszawa U19 win 2–3).
The model had projected Arka Gdynia U19 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Arka Gdynia U19 Talent Warszawa U19 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia U19 | 35.6% | 52.9% | -17.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Talent Warszawa U19 | 34.7% | 24.0% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Arka Gdynia U19's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Talent Warszawa U19 win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Arka Gdynia U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arka Gdynia U19 by 17.3 percentage points (52.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arka Gdynia U19 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Talent Warszawa U19 34.7%
- xG · Arka Gdynia U19 1.31 — Talent Warszawa U19 1.29
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arka Gdynia U19 1.68 · Draw 3.85 · Talent Warszawa U19 3.70
- Implied 1X2 · Arka Gdynia U19 52.9% · Draw 23.1% · Talent Warszawa U19 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Arka Gdynia U19 1.68 · Draw 3.85 · Talent Warszawa U19 3.70
- Implied 1X2 · Arka Gdynia U19 52.9% · Draw 23.1% · Talent Warszawa U19 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Talent Warszawa U19 win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Central Youth League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia U19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań U19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Arkonia U19 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Korona Kielce U19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 8 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 12 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 | Jagiellonia U19 | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 7 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Lech Poznań U19 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Arkonia U19 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce U19 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 6 |
