Predictions / Football / Poland. Central Youth League / Legia Warszawa U19 vs Arkonia U19

Prediction Audit: Legia Warszawa U19 vs Arkonia U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Legia Warszawa U19 Legia Warszawa U19
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:00
3 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 52%
Arkonia U19 Arkonia U19

AI correctly predicted the Legia Warszawa U19 win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Legia Warszawa U19 Legia Warszawa U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Legia Warszawa U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Legia Warszawa U19 -34.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Legia Warszawa U19 39.0% 73.6% -34.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 15.7% +13.9 pp Model Edge
Arkonia U19 31.5% 10.8% +20.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Legia Warszawa U19's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 34.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Legia Warszawa U19 win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Legia Warszawa U19 higher (73.6% vs model 39.0%, 34.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Legia Warszawa U19 win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Legia Warszawa U19 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Arkonia U19 31.5%
    • xG · Legia Warszawa U19 1.38 — Arkonia U19 1.22
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa U19 1.20 · Draw 5.63 · Arkonia U19 8.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa U19 73.6% · Draw 15.7% · Arkonia U19 10.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa U19 1.20 · Draw 5.63 · Arkonia U19 8.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa U19 73.6% · Draw 15.7% · Arkonia U19 10.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Legia Warszawa U19 win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076694

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Legia Warszawa U19 win · Legia Warszawa U19 3–2 Arkonia U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Legia Warszawa U19; market prices Legia Warszawa U19 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Legia Warszawa U19 1.38 xG vs Arkonia U19 1.22 → Legia Warszawa U19 39.0%
  • Market: Legia Warszawa U19 ~73.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Central Youth League Central Youth League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 6 2 0 20
2 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 5 2 1 17
3 Wisła Kraków U19 7 3 3 1 12
4 Talent Warszawa U19 8 4 0 4 12
5 Miedź Legnica U19 7 4 0 3 12
6 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 4 0 3 12
7 Jagiellonia U19 7 3 2 2 11
8 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 3 1 4 10
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 3 0 4 9
10 Arkonia U19 8 2 3 3 9
11 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 1 5 2 8
12 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 2 2 4 8
13 Korona Kielce U19 7 2 2 3 8
14 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 2 1 4 7
15 Arka Gdynia U19 8 1 3 4 6
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 2 0 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 20 9 +11 20
2 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 16 13 +3 10
3 Talent Warszawa U19 8 16 15 +1 12
4 Wisła Kraków U19 7 13 8 +5 12
5 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 12 5 +7 17
6 Jagiellonia U19 7 12 9 +3 11
7 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 12 14 -2 12
8 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 11 10 +1 7
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 11 12 -1 9
10 Arka Gdynia U19 8 9 14 -5 6
11 Miedź Legnica U19 7 8 8 0 12
12 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 8 10 -2 8
13 Arkonia U19 8 8 11 -3 9
14 Korona Kielce U19 7 8 12 -4 8
15 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 8 14 -6 8
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 3 11 -8 6
Central Youth League Poland. Central Youth League Predictions