Predictions / Football / Poland. Central Youth League / Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19

Prediction Audit: Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Raków Częstochowa U19 Raków Częstochowa U19
Aug 15, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Arka Gdynia U19 Arka Gdynia U19

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Raków Częstochowa U19 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raków Częstochowa U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Raków Częstochowa U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Raków Częstochowa U19 -9.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Raków Częstochowa U19 36.6% 46.1% -9.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.5% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Arka Gdynia U19 33.8% 29.4% +4.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Raków Częstochowa U19's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Raków Częstochowa U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Raków Częstochowa U19; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Raków Częstochowa U19 by 9.5 percentage points (46.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa U19 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Arka Gdynia U19 33.8%
    • xG · Raków Częstochowa U19 1.33 — Arka Gdynia U19 1.27
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa U19 1.83 · Draw 4.50 · Arka Gdynia U19 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa U19 49.0% · Draw 19.9% · Arka Gdynia U19 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa U19 1.95 · Draw 3.67 · Arka Gdynia U19 3.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa U19 46.1% · Draw 24.5% · Arka Gdynia U19 29.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340410

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Raków Częstochowa U19 1–1 Arka Gdynia U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Central Youth League
  • Fixture: Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Raków Częstochowa U19 1.33 — Arka Gdynia U19 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Central Youth League Central Youth League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 6 2 0 20
2 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 5 2 1 17
3 Wisła Kraków U19 7 3 3 1 12
4 Talent Warszawa U19 8 4 0 4 12
5 Miedź Legnica U19 7 4 0 3 12
6 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 4 0 3 12
7 Jagiellonia U19 7 3 2 2 11
8 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 3 1 4 10
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 3 0 4 9
10 Arkonia U19 8 2 3 3 9
11 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 1 5 2 8
12 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 2 2 4 8
13 Korona Kielce U19 7 2 2 3 8
14 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 2 1 4 7
15 Arka Gdynia U19 8 1 3 4 6
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 2 0 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 20 9 +11 20
2 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 16 13 +3 10
3 Talent Warszawa U19 8 16 15 +1 12
4 Wisła Kraków U19 7 13 8 +5 12
5 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 12 5 +7 17
6 Jagiellonia U19 7 12 9 +3 11
7 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 12 14 -2 12
8 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 11 10 +1 7
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 11 12 -1 9
10 Arka Gdynia U19 8 9 14 -5 6
11 Miedź Legnica U19 7 8 8 0 12
12 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 8 10 -2 8
13 Arkonia U19 8 8 11 -3 9
14 Korona Kielce U19 7 8 12 -4 8
15 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 8 14 -6 8
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 3 11 -8 6
Central Youth League Poland. Central Youth League Predictions