Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar / Elversberg II vs Schott Mainz

Prediction Audit: Elversberg II vs Schott Mainz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Elversberg II Elversberg II
Sep 23, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.06
1 1.54
xG Accuracy: 67%
Schott Mainz Schott Mainz

The model missed the final outcome (Elversberg II win 2–1).

The model had projected Schott Mainz at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Schott Mainz Elversberg II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Schott Mainz; match finished Elversberg II

Market lesson

The full-time result was Elversberg II win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 03, 2026 · 08:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Elversberg II 1.06 — Schott Mainz 1.54
  2. Sep 23, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Elversberg II win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6751777

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Elversberg II win · Elversberg II 2–1 Schott Mainz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar
  • Fixture: Elversberg II vs Schott Mainz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.8%
  • xG (showing): Elversberg II 1.06 — Schott Mainz 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mechtersheim 10 7 0 3 21
2 Schott Mainz 10 5 4 1 19
3 Gau-Odernheim 9 6 1 2 19
4 FV Engers 07 10 5 3 2 18
5 Pirmasens 10 5 2 3 17
6 TuS Koblenz 10 5 2 3 17
7 Gonsenheim 10 5 1 4 16
8 RW Wittlich 9 5 1 3 16
9 Wormatia Worms 10 5 1 4 16
10 TuS RW Koblenz 10 4 4 2 16
11 Auersmacher 10 5 0 5 15
12 FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 10 4 2 4 14
13 Elversberg II 10 3 3 4 12
14 Hertha Wiesbach 10 3 2 5 11
15 Cosmos Koblenz 10 3 1 6 10
16 Diefflen 10 2 1 7 7
17 Ahrweiler 10 1 3 6 6
18 Eisbachtal 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pirmasens 10 29 18 +11 17
2 Mechtersheim 10 26 17 +9 21
3 RW Wittlich 9 26 19 +7 16
4 Wormatia Worms 10 26 20 +6 16
5 FV Engers 07 10 25 16 +9 18
6 Schott Mainz 10 23 11 +12 19
7 Gau-Odernheim 9 22 10 +12 19
8 Gonsenheim 10 21 13 +8 16
9 Auersmacher 10 20 21 -1 15
10 TuS RW Koblenz 10 19 14 +5 16
11 TuS Koblenz 10 18 15 +3 17
12 FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 10 18 24 -6 14
13 Cosmos Koblenz 10 17 22 -5 10
14 Hertha Wiesbach 10 16 25 -9 11
15 Diefflen 10 14 33 -19 7
16 Elversberg II 10 13 18 -5 12
17 Ahrweiler 10 9 18 -9 6
18 Eisbachtal 10 3 31 -28 1
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany. Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Predictions