AI correctly predicted the Fluminense De Feira win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fluminense De Feira Fluminense De Feira ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense De Feira | 39.0% | 60.8% | -21.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.9% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| SSA | 31.5% | 15.3% | +16.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Fluminense De Feira's win probability at 60.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fluminense De Feira win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fluminense De Feira higher (60.8% vs model 39.0%, 21.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fluminense De Feira win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fluminense De Feira 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · SSA 31.5%
- xG · Fluminense De Feira 1.38 — SSA 1.22
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense De Feira 1.46 · Draw 3.71 · SSA 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense De Feira 60.8% · Draw 23.9% · SSA 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense De Feira 1.46 · Draw 3.71 · SSA 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense De Feira 60.8% · Draw 23.9% · SSA 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fluminense De Feira win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Baiano - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense De Feira | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | SSA | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 | Barreiras FC | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 4 | Feira FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Redenção FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Leonico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Jacobina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Grapiuna Itabuna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Vitoria Da Conquista | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Camaçari | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense De Feira | 9 | 33 | 5 | +28 | 25 |
| 2 | Feira FC | 9 | 27 | 4 | +23 | 19 |
| 3 | Barreiras FC | 9 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 | SSA | 9 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 21 |
| 5 | Redenção FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Leonico | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 10 |
| 7 | Vitoria Da Conquista | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 8 | Jacobina | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
| 9 | Grapiuna Itabuna | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 7 |
| 10 | Camaçari | 9 | 5 | 41 | -36 | 0 |
