Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Swansea vs Udinese

Prediction Audit: Swansea vs Udinese Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Swansea Swansea
Jul 24, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Udinese Udinese

The model missed the final outcome (Swansea win 2–0).

The model had projected Udinese at 40.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Udinese Swansea ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Udinese higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Udinese -8.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Swansea 30.6% 24.2% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.9% 27.3% +1.6 pp Aligned
Udinese 40.5% 48.5% -8.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Udinese's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.5%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Swansea win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Udinese. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Udinese; match finished Swansea

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Udinese by 8.0 percentage points (48.5% vs model 40.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Swansea 30.6% · Draw 28.9% · Udinese 40.5%
    • xG · Swansea 1.26 — Udinese 1.34
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Swansea 3.66 · Draw 3.25 · Udinese 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Swansea 24.2% · Draw 27.3% · Udinese 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Swansea 3.66 · Draw 3.25 · Udinese 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Swansea 24.2% · Draw 27.3% · Udinese 48.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Swansea win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452219

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Swansea win · Swansea 2–0 Udinese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Swansea City vs Udinese
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Swansea City 1.26 — Udinese 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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