Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Beltinci vs Sharjah FC

Prediction Audit: Beltinci vs Sharjah FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Beltinci Beltinci
Jul 22, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.33
4 1.27
xG Accuracy: 33%
Sharjah FC Sharjah FC

The model missed the final outcome (Sharjah FC win 0–4).

The model had projected Beltinci at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Beltinci Sharjah FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sharjah FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sharjah FC -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Beltinci 36.6% 34.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Sharjah FC 33.8% 40.8% -7.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sharjah FC's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sharjah FC win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sharjah FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Beltinci by 7.0 percentage points (43.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Beltinci 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sharjah FC 33.8%
    • xG · Beltinci 1.33 — Sharjah FC 1.27
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Beltinci 2.57 · Draw 3.62 · Sharjah FC 2.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Beltinci 34.6% · Draw 24.6% · Sharjah FC 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Beltinci 2.57 · Draw 3.62 · Sharjah FC 2.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Beltinci 34.6% · Draw 24.6% · Sharjah FC 40.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sharjah FC win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 06:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2845000

Closing Odds 2.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sharjah FC win · Beltinci 0–4 Sharjah FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Beltinci vs Sharjah FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Beltinci 1.33 — Sharjah FC 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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