The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Buriram United at 50.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Buriram United Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram United | 50.4% | 80.0% | -29.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.1% | 12.9% | +17.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Chiangrai United | 19.5% | 7.0% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Buriram United's win probability at 80.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.4%, a difference of 29.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Buriram United; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Buriram United by 29.7 percentage points (80.1% vs model 50.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Buriram United 50.3% · Draw 30.1% · Chiangrai United 19.6%
- xG · Buriram United 1.44 — Chiangrai United 0.81
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Buriram United 1.16 · Draw 7.17 · Chiangrai United 13.25
- Implied 1X2 · Buriram United 80.0% · Draw 12.9% · Chiangrai United 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Buriram United 1.16 · Draw 7.17 · Chiangrai United 13.25
- Implied 1X2 · Buriram United 80.0% · Draw 12.9% · Chiangrai United 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Thai League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Pattani | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Bangkok United | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Buriram United | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Rayong FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Port FC | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Prachuap | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sisaket United | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
