Predictions / Football / Brazil. Copa Santa Catarina / Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz

Prediction Audit: Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias
Sep 19, 2026 - 20:00
4 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 39%
Hercílio Luz Hercílio Luz

AI correctly predicted the Marcílio Dias win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Hercílio Luz +2.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Marcílio Dias 39.5% 41.6% -2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 29.9% -0.4 pp Aligned
Hercílio Luz 31.0% 28.5% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Marcílio Dias win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Marcílio Dias win 4–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Marcílio Dias 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hercílio Luz 31.0%
    • xG · Marcílio Dias 1.39 — Hercílio Luz 1.21
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Marcílio Dias 2.14 · Draw 2.97 · Hercílio Luz 3.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Marcílio Dias 41.5% · Draw 29.9% · Hercílio Luz 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Marcílio Dias 2.16 · Draw 3.01 · Hercílio Luz 3.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Marcílio Dias 41.6% · Draw 29.9% · Hercílio Luz 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Marcílio Dias win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8709646

Closing Odds 3.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Marcílio Dias win · Marcílio Dias 4–2 Hercílio Luz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Santa Catarina
  • Fixture: Marcílio Dias vs Hercílio Luz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Marcílio Dias 1.39 — Hercílio Luz 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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