The model missed the final outcome (Al-Arabi SC win 0–2).
The model had projected Al-Sailiya at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al-Sailiya Al-Arabi SC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Sailiya | 35.2% | 16.4% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.3% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Al-Arabi SC | 35.2% | 64.3% | -29.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Al-Arabi SC's win probability at 64.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al-Arabi SC win 0–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Al-Sailiya; match finished Al-Arabi SC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al-Sailiya by 29.1 percentage points (64.3% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al-Sailiya 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Al-Arabi SC 35.2%
- xG · Al-Sailiya 1.30 — Al-Arabi SC 1.30
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al-Sailiya 5.75 · Draw 4.90 · Al-Arabi SC 1.47
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Sailiya 16.4% · Draw 19.3% · Al-Arabi SC 64.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al-Sailiya 5.75 · Draw 4.90 · Al-Arabi SC 1.47
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Sailiya 16.4% · Draw 19.3% · Al-Arabi SC 64.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al-Arabi SC win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Stars League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Al Shamal | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Duhail SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Lusail City | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Qatar SC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Al Wakrah | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Shamal | 4 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Lusail City | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Al Shahaniya | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Arabi SC | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Al-Duhail SC | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Al-Sailiya | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 0 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 | Al Wakrah | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
