Predictions / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / CF Os Belenenses vs Atlético CP

Prediction Audit: CF Os Belenenses vs Atlético CP Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Atlético CP Atlético CP

AI correctly predicted the CF Os Belenenses win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices CF Os Belenenses higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CF Os Belenenses -7.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CF Os Belenenses 40.4% 48.3% -7.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 28.5% +1.0 pp Aligned
Atlético CP 30.1% 23.2% +6.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates CF Os Belenenses's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CF Os Belenenses win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on CF Os Belenenses. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CF Os Belenenses higher (48.3% vs model 40.4%, 7.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CF Os Belenenses win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Atlético CP 30.1%
    • xG · CF Os Belenenses 1.41 — Atlético CP 1.19
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CF Os Belenenses 1.92 · Draw 3.26 · Atlético CP 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 48.3% · Draw 28.5% · Atlético CP 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CF Os Belenenses 1.92 · Draw 3.26 · Atlético CP 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · CF Os Belenenses 48.3% · Draw 28.5% · Atlético CP 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CF Os Belenenses win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7423652

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CF Os Belenenses win · CF Os Belenenses 1–0 Atlético CP
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: CF Os Belenenses vs Atlético CP
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): CF Os Belenenses 1.41 — Atlético CP 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.6% · Probability edge: +3.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 12
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 15
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
2 Atlético CP 5 3 1 1 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 5 2 2 1 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Caldas 5 2 1 2 7
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
9 São João Ver 5 0 3 2 3
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 2
10 Vitória de Sernache 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Paredes 5 8 4 +4 12
5 Fafe 5 8 4 +4 8
6 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
8 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
9 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
10 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Caldas 5 5 5 0 7
13 Pacos Ferreira 5 5 10 -5 2
14 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
15 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
17 São João Ver 5 3 6 -3 3
18 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
19 Vitória de Sernache 5 3 13 -10 1
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4