Predictions / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Caldas vs Vitória de Sernache

Prediction Audit: Caldas vs Vitória de Sernache Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Caldas Caldas
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 56%
Vitória de Sernache Vitória de Sernache

The model missed the final outcome (Caldas win 2–0).

The model had projected Vitória de Sernache at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vitória de Sernache Caldas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Vitória de Sernache considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Vitória de Sernache +12.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Caldas 32.9% 44.6% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.0% -0.4 pp Aligned
Vitória de Sernache 37.5% 25.4% +12.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Vitória de Sernache's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Caldas win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vitória de Sernache.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vitória de Sernache by 12.2 percentage points (25.3% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Caldas 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Vitória de Sernache 37.6%
    • xG · Caldas 1.25 — Vitória de Sernache 1.35
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Caldas 2.08 · Draw 3.09 · Vitória de Sernache 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Caldas 44.6% · Draw 30.0% · Vitória de Sernache 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Caldas 2.08 · Draw 3.09 · Vitória de Sernache 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Caldas 44.6% · Draw 30.0% · Vitória de Sernache 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Caldas win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7451282

Closing Odds 3.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caldas win · Caldas 2–0 Vitória de Sernache
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Caldas vs Vitória de Sernache
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Caldas 1.25 — Vitória de Sernache 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.8% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 12
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 15
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
2 Atlético CP 5 3 1 1 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 5 2 2 1 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Caldas 5 2 1 2 7
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
9 São João Ver 5 0 3 2 3
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 2
10 Vitória de Sernache 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Paredes 5 8 4 +4 12
5 Fafe 5 8 4 +4 8
6 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
8 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
9 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
10 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Caldas 5 5 5 0 7
13 Pacos Ferreira 5 5 10 -5 2
14 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
15 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
17 São João Ver 5 3 6 -3 3
18 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
19 Vitória de Sernache 5 3 13 -10 1
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4