Predictions / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / AD Marco 09 vs Guimaraes B

Prediction Audit: AD Marco 09 vs Guimaraes B Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AD Marco 09 AD Marco 09
Sep 12, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Guimaraes B Guimaraes B

The model missed the final outcome (AD Marco 09 win 1–0).

The model had projected Guimaraes B at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guimaraes B AD Marco 09 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Guimaraes B considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Guimaraes B +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
AD Marco 09 34.7% 39.8% -5.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.1% -0.5 pp Aligned
Guimaraes B 35.6% 30.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Guimaraes B's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.1%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AD Marco 09 win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Guimaraes B.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guimaraes B by 5.5 percentage points (30.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AD Marco 09 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Guimaraes B 35.6%
    • xG · AD Marco 09 1.29 — Guimaraes B 1.31
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · AD Marco 09 2.33 · Draw 3.08 · Guimaraes B 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · AD Marco 09 39.8% · Draw 30.1% · Guimaraes B 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AD Marco 09 2.33 · Draw 3.08 · Guimaraes B 3.08
    • Implied 1X2 · AD Marco 09 39.8% · Draw 30.1% · Guimaraes B 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AD Marco 09 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7459378

Closing Odds 3.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AD Marco 09 win · AD Marco 09 1–0 Guimaraes B
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: AD Marco 09 vs Guimaraes B
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): AD Marco 09 1.29 — Guimaraes B 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +4.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 12
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 15
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
2 Atlético CP 5 3 1 1 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 5 2 2 1 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Caldas 5 2 1 2 7
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
9 São João Ver 5 0 3 2 3
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 2
10 Vitória de Sernache 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Paredes 5 8 4 +4 12
5 Fafe 5 8 4 +4 8
6 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
8 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
9 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
10 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Caldas 5 5 5 0 7
13 Pacos Ferreira 5 5 10 -5 2
14 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
15 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
17 São João Ver 5 3 6 -3 3
18 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
19 Vitória de Sernache 5 3 13 -10 1
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4