Predictions / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911

Prediction Audit: Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Louletano Louletano
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 64%
Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911

AI correctly predicted the Louletano win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Louletano Louletano ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Louletano considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Louletano +7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Louletano 36.6% 29.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 33.6% -4.0 pp Aligned
Lusitano Évora 1911 33.8% 37.0% -3.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Louletano's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Louletano win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Louletano.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Louletano more conservatively (29.5% vs model 36.6%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Louletano win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Louletano 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 33.8%
    • xG · Louletano 1.33 — Lusitano Évora 1911 1.27
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Louletano 3.15 · Draw 2.76 · Lusitano Évora 1911 2.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Louletano 29.4% · Draw 33.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Louletano 3.15 · Draw 2.76 · Lusitano Évora 1911 2.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Louletano 29.4% · Draw 33.6% · Lusitano Évora 1911 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Louletano win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6367446

Closing Odds 3.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Louletano win · Louletano 1–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Louletano 1.33 — Lusitano Évora 1911 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +22.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 4 0 0 12
2 Paredes 4 3 0 1 9
2 Atlético CP 4 3 1 0 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 4 2 2 0 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 Caldas 4 1 1 2 4
9 São João Ver 4 0 2 2 2
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 4 0 1 3 1
10 Vitória de Sernache 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 4 12 2 +10 12
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 4 8 2 +6 10
4 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
5 Fafe 4 7 2 +5 8
6 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
7 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
8 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
9 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
10 Paredes 4 6 3 +3 9
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
13 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
14 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
15 Pacos Ferreira 4 4 9 -5 1
16 Caldas 4 3 5 -2 4
17 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
18 Vitória de Sernache 4 3 11 -8 1
19 São João Ver 4 2 5 -3 2
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4