Prediction Audit: Caldas vs Louletano Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Caldas

Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.25

4 1.35

xG Accuracy: 39%

Louletano

AI correctly predicted the Louletano win.

The match finished 2–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Louletano Louletano ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Caldas	32.9%	42.7%	-9.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	30.9%	-1.3 pp	Aligned
Louletano	37.5%	26.3%	+11.2 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Louletano's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.3%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Louletano win 2–4).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Louletano.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Louletano more conservatively (26.3% vs model 37.5%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Louletano win 2–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Caldas 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Louletano 37.6%
- xG · Caldas 1.25 — Louletano 1.35
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Caldas 2.17 · Draw 3.00 · Louletano 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Caldas 42.7% · Draw 30.9% · Louletano 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Caldas 2.20 · Draw 3.04 · Louletano 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Caldas 42.7% · Draw 30.9% · Louletano 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Louletano win · 2–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4368246

Closing Odds 3.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Louletano win · Caldas 2–4 Louletano

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga 3
Fixture: Caldas vs Louletano
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Caldas 1.25 — Louletano 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	5
7	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	1	2	2	5
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3
9	União Santarém	5	1	1	3	4
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	13	2	+11	15
2	Mafra	5	9	5	+4	7
3	Atlético CP	5	8	3	+5	10
4	Paredes	5	8	4	+4	12
5	Fafe	5	8	4	+4	8
6	Varzim	5	8	5	+3	9
7	Oliveirense	5	7	7	0	8
8	Louletano	5	7	7	0	7
9	Leça	5	7	8	-1	7
10	AD Marco 09	5	6	3	+3	10
11	Vianense	5	6	5	+1	8
12	Caldas	5	5	5	0	7
13	Pacos Ferreira	5	5	10	-5	2
14	Guimaraes B	5	4	5	-1	5
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	4	5	-1	5
16	SC Covilha	5	4	6	-2	5
17	São João Ver	5	3	6	-3	3
18	União Santarém	5	3	10	-7	4
19	Vitória de Sernache	5	3	13	-10	1
20	Trofense	5	2	7	-5	4